WARNING: philosophy ahead

Kurzweil is a popular evangelist in the Singularity movement. I’ve read a couple of his books and his upbeat vision of the future accounts for much of the Singularity world that I write about, including the idea that humans will integrate with technology (via pleasant or unpleasant means) and ascend, or at least enhance their intelligence enough to get a grip on the AI problem. Maybe.

In the article, I was a little dismayed to hear Kurzweil use the analogy of the industrial revolution to explain the coming transition to a more automated future – Kurzweil is all about exponential change, and the industrial revolution wasn’t that. The analogy of disruption is apt, but the magnitude is not.

I do still agree with his fundamental premise: that humans will continue to enhance their intelligence (via tech) and jobs will continue to shift higher on Maslow’s hierarchy, i.e. they will be more creative, more fulfilling, and more demanding of all our capabilities.

There are two main problems this trend will present:

1) will we be able to get smarter fast enough?

2) will automation reduce the cost of living fast enough to match the drop in income experienced by humans? Or will the disruption be bloody, revolutionary, and chaotic?

I think education is key to moving people up Maslow’s hierarchy at a fast enough rate to keep ahead of AI and unemployment caused by automation. Unfortunately, our educational system is broken. Online learning may (already) be coming to the rescue with that, but it may be insufficient.

Either way, what’s coming won’t just be the industrial revolution on steroids. It will be a fundamental race for survival, with the distinct possibility of tumbling into social anarchy.

Thoughts?