There were more great workshops and keynote speeches that made me laugh and brought me to tears, and Linda Sue Park continued to amaze me with her brilliance, but the big hitter speech today came at the end of the day with Rubin Pfeffer’s talk about the future of publishing.
Rubin challenged the SCBWI as a whole to not fear the future of publishing, including the world of e-books. He insisted we think of e-books, and other media platform changes, as not “instead of” but “in addition to.” He claimed that the publishing industry was being redesigned from the inside out, with inefficiencies being taken out by forces outside of the publishing world. Eye-popping statistics were thrown out to the crowd:
- Amazon e-books outselling hardcovers and on track to outsell paperbacks
- Author profit by media per sale: paperbook ($0.80), e-rights with publisher ($1.75=25% of net), e-rights with author ($3-7)
- a projected 59 million iPads in the near future
- 70% of U.S. adults have not been in a bookstore in the last 5 years
Rubin said readers were beginning to express their ideas about prices and scheduling of books, and e-readers were evolving so quickly that they were becoming extinct almost as fast as they came out. He spoke of the changing roles of literary agents, with Wiley literary agency launching Odessey, an in-house e-publisher.
The reins of control in publishing are shifting, and Rubin questioned what SCBWI’s role in this revolution would be? With bigger houses scrambling to re-tool, and smaller houses being more nimble and snapping up opportunities as they arise, Rubin threw out the idea of SCBWI becoming an e-publisher.
The room went silent, a thousand minds reeling from the rapid fire challenge. And in culture shock.
I agree with Rubin that all the innovations in reading will create more ways to connect individual authors to readers, and will ultimately result in more books being sold, in some format. I believe the latest digital technology has tremendous visual opportunities for children (as Rubin said) and that bundling of enhanced e-books is the next new frontier. I believe we must innovate through this sea-change in publishing, in order to survive, and even prosper.
And I continue to believe it is a good time to be a writer.
Maybe SCBWI won’t join the ranks of small, nimble e-publishers. Given that much of the infrastructure of SCBWI mirrors the current large-publisher industry, I think a re-tooling of the thinking within SCBWI will need to come first. This is why I am very supportive (and excited about!) Rubin’s suggestion that SCBWI implement a steering committee to study the implications of these innovations, and take a year to come up with a plan for the future of SCBWI. I agree that the purpose of this grand national organization has never been more relevant and important.
Rubin predicted a future publishing world where …
- readers will pay less
- authors will earn more
- publishing will cost less
- ebooks may encourage new literary forms
- professional services and talent from publishers will still be needed
I don’t know if he’s right. But I can’t wait to see what the leadership in SCBWI, some of the best, most creative minds in the industry, decide the future of SCBWI should be.
I think I disagree that writers will earn more in general. I think they may receive a higher amount per book sold, but I think that most authors will sell fewer books.
@Ted That's a great point, and I think everyone should be looking at the "total earnings" for a book (profit per unit x expected units sold). There may be other compelling reasons for publishing decisions, but that should be one of them.
I had an interesting conversation with a picture book author, published with a major house, whose books weren't being carried in B&N. It was in the publisher's catalogue, but it hadn't made it to the bookstores, because B&N hadn't picked it up. I think the assumption that big house=bookstore shelf isn't necessarily always true anymore. Interestingly, a bunch of her books were picked up by an independent distributor, and is now housed in a lot of indie bookstores. One of the best parts of this conference has been hearing everyone's stories …